The Fourth Turning and what is urgent now
Listen in to Melissa Arnot share her vulnerabilities on Mt. Everest, and what wasn't about the mountain at all
What you’ll find below:
The Fourth Turning
The release of Season 3 of The Grit Factor is TODAY
What I’m reading today
When you hear about a thing more than once from people you deeply respect— unrelated—you make a point of seeing what the hubbub is about. And this isn’t hubbub, not really, not yet. And it’s theory, quite frankly, though theory that seems quite nearly incontrovertible (plenty find it contentious).
Neil Howe is an historian who looks at the vast swath of time, and sees it to be cyclical. He explains why westerners typically do not (beginning with Augustine) but it is hard to argue with his evidence to support the idea. History and empire, Howe suggests, moves in saecula (80-110 year cycles, roughly approximate to the span of a long human life or one full generation) and saeculua each have seasons— winter, spring, summer and fall, each with their own characteristics. We are in winter, and have been since 2008, the fourth turning (or saeculum) for the United States. Winter is the time of dissolution, of falling apart. It is often characterized by the shaking of institutions, and a great war. And in the aftermath of whatever causes the falling apart, we will have to rebuild— our understanding of the world, our nation and ourselves (if they all survive). If this sounds a bit astrological and not historical, I urge you to dig into The Fourth Turning, and you can listen in on a few interviews on NPR and elsewhere.
The world is shifting— has already shifted. if we still bumble about in local concerns, China has moved ahead, and rapidly. Ezra Klein and Thomas Friedman discussed this recently— Friedman’s recent trip to China showed them vastly ahead of where we have understood them to be. Factories are dark, because the workers are robotic. Education is top of the world, and students are sorted constantly, with the top performers moving into government.
Set next to the Fourth Turning, this suggests imminent and cataclysmic, quite possibly catastrophic— change.
This Sunday, I traveled to see my eldest son confirmed in the Episcopal Church, and the hope that a commitment like that brings, a commitment to choose to believe, a commitment to choose to seek, brings me great hope and joy. And I am also aware that both of my children are of draft age within six years, all well within the “winter” of this time, and I am terrified.
In many respects, there is only this. We cannot control the catastrophe. We must work toward what we know is in opposition (how will we work ethically in a technological world that is already here? How will we ensure the best possible eduction for our children?). Beginning now, we must decide what those values are that we will teach our children, again and again and again in many different ways, so that they can be a part of rebuilding whatever is left. This values can’t be at the level of petty and shallow identity politics. They can’t be connected merely to skills, which will change rapidly and constantly. They must be deep and enduring values connected to ideas— not to institutions, not to people— which will work out imperfectly the way they always have, with attempts to improve.
Sometimes, we have to go big to go small, look at the universal to know how to focus on the specific. Whether or not you buy into the Fourth Turning, it is a wake up. A possibility. Perhaps even a probability. Whether or not you buy into it, the work must be done. As Ross Douthat said in the article linked in last week’s post, if you do not move with intention, you will lose it. Specifically: “how much survives will depend on our own deliberate choices.” Which urgently demands of us: What will your choices be?
Having become comfortable, we have in large part slumped into a world of the shallows. This happens in the autumn of the turnings. Can we elevate ourselves back into the realm of ideas, overcome personal pettiness and self obsession, and work toward the greater good?
I hope so. Because other parts of the world decidedly less democratically minded are moving ahead with very different ideas than we might have in mind.
I believe so. Because of the examples not only of greats, like Pope Francis, but because of the smallest unknown acts of kindness and grace I see every day (can we choose to see these?).
I know so. Goodness will prevail. We will do what must be done. We will be intentional. Not all of us, but enough of us. Maybe only by a hair. The readers of this newsletter, to start. It will not be easy. But we will spread the urgency of that intention, and live and work into that intention. We will live into the promise of purpose.
Season 3 of The Grit Factor podcast
It’s here. Please subscribe. Please share. Please give it all of your ratings love. The podcast is currently funded entirely by The Grit Institute, so becoming a paid subscriber here will support the work. I’m approaching sponsors as well— could this be your company? Drop a note!
What I know is that we need these conversations as vitally as we need anything right now so that we can support each other in the promise of purpose.
I’m getting ready to teach and facilitate classes and workshops the next couple of days at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth on exactly this conversation.
Signing off from a beautiful day in Hanover, New Hampshire,
with love and to your grit— and purpose—,
Shannon
PS: If your company is looking for a world class keynote this fall or in 2025, reach out! Keynotes The Grit Factor, Leading with Purpose, and The Grit Mindset can all be customized to meet your organization’s specific needs and objectives, and are guaranteed to make any event a spectacular success!
PSS: What I’m reading today: The Power of Ideals, by William Damon and Anne Colby
